Early Recognition of Emerging Flu Strain Clusters

TL;DR

This paper reviews current methods and presents a model that can significantly reduce the time needed to develop effective vaccines for rapidly mutating flu viruses, potentially improving response times.

Contribution

It introduces a dimensional reduction model that accelerates vaccine design for H3N2 flu, reducing delays by over a year.

Findings

Model reduces vaccine development time by over a year.

Current predictive methods summarized and evaluated.

Potential to improve vaccine effectiveness against mutating viruses.

Abstract

Minimizing time delays in manufacturing vaccines appropriate to rapidly mutating viruses is the key step for improving vaccine effectiveness. The vaccine for the H3N2 flu type has failed for the last two years (~ 15% effective). Here we summarize the state of the predictive art and report the most current results for H3N2 flu vaccine design. Using a 2006 model of dimensional reduction of viral mutational complexity, we show that this model can reduce vaccine time delays by a year or more in some cases.