An Experimental Evaluation of Computational Techniques for Planning and Assessment of International Interventions

TL;DR

This paper details the development and application of experimental methodologies for evaluating computational tools used in planning and assessing complex international interventions involving political, military, economic, social, infrastructure, and information factors.

Contribution

It introduces a novel experimental framework for testing computational techniques in complex, multi-agency international intervention planning and assessment.

Findings

Methodology evolved through multiple experiments with lessons learned.

Tools demonstrated effectiveness in analyzing complex PMESII factors.

Recommendations provided for future interagency experimental efforts.

Abstract

We describe the experimental methodology developed and employed in a series of experiments within the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) Conflict Modeling, Planning, and Outcomes Exploration (COMPOEX) Program. The primary purpose of the effort was development of tools and methods for analysis, planning and predictive assessment of plans for complex operations where integrated political-military-economic-social-infrastructure and information (PMESII) considerations play decisive roles. As part of the program, our team executed several broad-based experiments, involving dozens of experts from several agencies simultaneously. The methodology evolved from one experiment to another because of the lessons learned. The paper presents the motivation, objectives, and structure of this interagency experiment series; the methods we explored in the experiments; and the results, lessons learned and recommendations for future efforts of such nature.