Simulation and Analysis of Container Freight Train Operations at Port Botany

TL;DR

This study uses data analytics and simulation to demonstrate that Port Botany's current rail infrastructure is under-utilized and capable of handling projected growth, with operational changes being key to unlocking its full capacity.

Contribution

The paper provides a data-driven analysis showing that Port Botany's rail capacity is much higher than current usage and that operational improvements can meet future growth without infrastructural upgrades.

Findings

Peak rail capacity is 1.78 million TEU per year.

Current infrastructure can handle projected growth.

Operational changes are essential for capacity realization.

Abstract

Over two million containers crossed the docks at Sydney's Port Botany in 2011/12; a figure that is forecast increase more than threefold by the end of the next decade. To cope with such large growth in volumes the NSW Government plans to double rail mode share at the port by the year 2020. Conventional wisdom from industry and the media says that existing infrastructure cannot handle such volumes. In this paper we use a combination of data analytics and simulation to examine operations at the port and evaluate the efficacy of current infrastructure to handle projected growth in volumes. Contrary to conventional wisdom we find that current rail resources appear distinctly under-utilised. Moreover: (i) the peak rail capacity of Port Botany is 1.78 million TEU per annum; over six times higher than 2011/12 rail volumes; (ii) there are no infrastructural impediments to the achievement of peak rail capacity; (iii) operational changes, not infrastructural investment, are the key to unlocking the potential of the port; (iv) Port Botany is well positioned to handle projected increases in container volumes over the next decade and beyond, including the 28% rail mode share target established by the New South Wales State Government.