Temporal Dynamics of Connectivity and Epidemic Properties of Growing Networks

TL;DR

This paper explores how the growth of networks over time influences their epidemic spreading properties, providing analytical models and simulations to predict how new nodes affect network resilience and disease outbreaks.

Contribution

It introduces an analytical framework for understanding the impact of network growth on epidemic dynamics, addressing a gap in existing research focused mainly on steady-state networks.

Findings

Network growth can either increase or decrease epidemic resilience.

The connectivity of new nodes influences the network's vulnerability.

Theoretical predictions are validated with simulations on real and synthetic networks.

Abstract

Traditional mathematical models of epidemic disease had for decades conventionally considered static structure for contacts. Recently, an upsurge of theoretical inquiry has strived towards rendering the models more realistic by incorporating the temporal aspects of networks of contacts, societal and online, that are of interest in the study of epidemics (and other similar diffusion processes). However, temporal dynamics have predominantly focused on link fluctuations and nodal activities, and less attention has been paid to the growth of the underlying network. Many real networks grow: online networks are evidently in constant growth, and societal networks can grow due to migration flux and reproduction. The effect of network growth on the epidemic properties of networks is hitherto unknown---mainly due to the predominant focus of the network growth literature on the so-called steady-state. This paper takes a step towards alleviating this gap. We analytically study the degree dynamics of a given arbitrary network that is subject to growth. We use the theoretical findings to predict the epidemic properties of the network as a function of time. We observe that the introduction of new individuals into the network can enhance or diminish its resilience against endemic outbreaks, and investigate how this regime shift depends upon the connectivity of newcomers and on how they establish connections to existing nodes. Throughout, theoretical findings are corroborated with Monte Carlo simulations over synthetic and real networks. The results shed light on the effects of network growth on the future epidemic properties of networks, and offers insights for devising a-priori immunization strategies.