Modelling consensus building in Delphi practices for participated transport planning

TL;DR

This paper presents an agent-based model combining AHP and Delphi methods to simulate consensus building in participatory transport planning, helping decision-makers understand factors influencing agreement.

Contribution

It introduces a novel agent-based simulation of consensus formation integrating AHP and Delphi, highlighting the impact of network topology and stakeholder influence.

Findings

Network topology significantly affects consensus speed.

Stakeholder influence alters opinion convergence.

The model aids in designing effective participatory processes.

Abstract

In this study a consensus building process based on a combination of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Delphi method is presented and applied to the decision-making process about alternative policy measures to promote cycling mobility. An agent-based model is here used to reproduce the same process of convergence of opinions, with the aim to understand the role of network topology, stakeholder influence and other sensitive variables on the emergence of consensus. It can be a useful tool for decision-makers to guide them in planning effective participation processes.