Bayesian model selection for the glacial-interglacial cycle

TL;DR

This paper demonstrates that Bayesian model selection for glacial-interglacial cycles is feasible with current computational methods, enabling discrimination between models using short paleoclimate records and highlighting the importance of joint chronology estimation.

Contribution

It introduces a novel Bayesian approach using SMC^2 and Brownian bridge proposals to accurately estimate Bayes factors for climate models with limited data.

Findings

Bayesian analysis now feasible for complex climate models

Different chronologies can lead to conflicting model conclusions

Joint inference of chronology and model parameters is necessary

Abstract

A prevailing viewpoint in palaeoclimate science is that a single palaeoclimate record contains insufficient information to discriminate between most competing explanatory models. Results we present here suggest the contrary. Using SMC^2 combined with novel Brownian bridge type proposals for the state trajectories, we show that even with relatively short time series it is possible to estimate Bayes factors to sufficient accuracy to be able to select between competing models. The results show that Monte Carlo methodology and computer power have now advanced to the point where a full Bayesian analysis for a wide class of conceptual climate models is now possible. The results also highlight a problem with estimating the chronology of the climate record prior to further statistical analysis, a practice which is common in palaeoclimate science. Using two datasets based on the same record but with different estimated chronologies results in conflicting conclusions about the importance of the orbital forcing on the glacial cycle, and about the internal dynamics generating the glacial cycle, even though the difference between the two estimated chronologies is consistent with dating uncertainty. This highlights a need for chronology estimation and other inferential questions to be addressed in a joint statistical procedure.