The Absolute Rate of LGRB Formation

TL;DR

This paper estimates the rate of long gamma-ray burst (LGRB) formation by analyzing the relationship between supernovae, metallicity, and observed LGRB rates, proposing an off-axis search strategy for future detection.

Contribution

It introduces a novel approach combining star-formation history and supernova statistics to estimate LGRB progenitor efficiency and beaming, with implications for detection strategies.

Findings

Approximately 1 in 4000 low metallicity broad-line Type Ic supernovae produce LGRBs.

Assuming a beaming factor of 100, about 1 in 40 such supernovae produce observable LGRBs.

Proposes radio observations of low metallicity Type Ic supernovae as an off-axis LGRB search method.

Abstract

We estimate the LGRB progenitor rate using our recent work on the effects of environmental metallically on LGRB formation in concert with SNe statistics via an approach patterned loosely off the Drake equation. Beginning with the cosmic star-formation history, we consider the expected number of broad-line Type Ic events (the SNe type associated with LGRBs) that are in low metallicity host environments adjusted by the contribution of high metallicity host environments at a much reduced rate. We then compare this estimate to the observed LGRB rate corrected for instrumental selection effects to provide a combined estimate of the efficiency fraction of these progenitors to produce LGRBs and the fraction of which are beamed in our direction. From this we estimate that an aligned LGRB occurs for approximately every 4000 low metallically broad-lined Type Ic Supernovae. Therefore if one assumes a semi-nominal beaming factor of 100 then only about one such supernova out of 40 produce an LGRB. Finally we propose an off-axis LGRB search strategy of targeting for radio observation broad-line Type Ic events that occur in low metallicity hosts.