Individual-based approach to epidemic processes on arbitrary dynamic contact networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces an individual-based approximation method for modeling epidemic spread on dynamic contact networks, capturing temporal heterogeneities and accurately predicting outbreak dynamics.

Contribution

It presents a novel, computationally efficient framework for epidemic modeling on arbitrary dynamic networks, incorporating temporal contact patterns and individual-level probabilities.

Findings

The model accurately approximates numerical simulations.

Static network models overestimate reproduction number.

The approach can identify the epidemic's index individual.

Abstract

The dynamics of contact networks and epidemics of infectious diseases often occur on comparable time scales. Ignoring one of these time scales may provide an incomplete understanding of the population dynamics of the infection process. We develop an individual-based approximation for the susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model applicable to arbitrary dynamic networks. Our framework provides, at the individual-level, the probability flow over time associated with the infection dynamics. This computationally efficient framework discards the correlation between the states of different nodes, yet provides accurate results in approximating direct numerical simulations. It naturally captures the temporal heterogeneities and correlations of contact sequences, fundamental ingredients regulating the timing and size of an epidemic outbreak. Using real-life data, we show that the static network model overestimates the reproduction number but underestimates the infection potential of super-spreading individuals. The high accuracy of our approximation further allows us to detect the index individual of an epidemic outbreak.