Critical links and nonlocal rerouting in complex supply networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces new criteria based on topology and load distribution to identify critical links in supply networks, improving outage prediction and aiding real-time monitoring and planning.

Contribution

It proposes two novel, topology-based criteria for predicting critical links that outperform local load measures, enhancing understanding and management of supply network stability.

Findings

Criteria outperform local load measures in predicting critical links.

Both criteria are applicable before outages occur, aiding real-time monitoring.

The approach supports network planning and design improvements.

Abstract

Link failures repeatedly induce large-scale outages in power grids and other supply networks. Yet, it is still not well understood, which links are particularly prone to inducing such outages. Here we analyze how the nature and location of each link impact the network's capability to maintain stable supply. We propose two criteria to identify critical links on the basis of the topology and the load distribution of the network prior to link failure. They are determined via a link's redundant capacity and a renormalized linear response theory we derive. These criteria outperform critical link prediction based on local measures such as loads. The results not only further our understanding of the physics of supply networks in general. As both criteria are available before any outage from the state of normal operation, they may also help real-time monitoring of grid operation, employing counter-measures and support network planning and design.