Bangs and Meteors from the Quiet Comet 15P/Finlay

TL;DR

This study analyzes two outbursts of comet 15P/Finlay in 2014/2015, estimating ejecta speeds, masses, and energies, and investigates the non-detection of the Finlayid meteor shower despite predictions.

Contribution

It provides detailed modeling of the outburst ejecta and explores the reasons behind the non-detection of the Finlayid meteor shower, offering new insights into comet activity and meteor shower prediction.

Findings

Ejection speeds ranged from 300 to 750 m/s.

Ejecta mass was less than 10^-7 of the nucleus mass.

No meteor shower was detected despite predictions.

Abstract

Jupiter-family comet 15P/Finlay has been reportedly quiet in activity for over a century but has harbored two outbursts during its 2014/2015 perihelion passage. Here we present an analysis of these two outbursts using a set of cometary observations. The outbursts took place between 2014 Dec. 15.4--16.0 UT and 2015 Jan. 15.5--16.0 UT as constrained by ground-based and spacecraft observations. We find a characteristic ejection speed of $V_0=300$ to $650 \mathrm{m \cdot s^{-1}}$ for the ejecta of the first outburst and $V_0=550$ to $750 \mathrm{m \cdot s^{-1}}$ for that of the second outburst using a Monte Carlo dust model. The mass of the ejecta is calculated to be $M_\mathrm{d}=2$ to $3\times10^5 \mathrm{kg}$ for the first outburst and $M_\mathrm{d}=4$ to $5\times10^5 \mathrm{kg}$ for the second outburst, corresponds to less than $10^{-7}$ of the nucleus mass. The specific energy of the two outbursts is found to be $0.3$ to $2\times10^5 \mathrm{J \cdot kg^{-1}}$. We also revisit the long-standing puzzle of the non-detection of the hypothetical Finlayid meteor shower by performing a cued search using the 13-year data from the Canadian Meteor Orbit Radar, which does not reveal any positives. The Earth will pass the 2014/2015 outburst ejecta around 2021 Oct. 6 at 22 h UT to Oct. 7 at 1 h UT, with a chance for some significant meteor activity in the radio range, which may provide further clues to the Finlayid puzzle. A southerly radiant in the constellation of Ara will favor the observers in the southern tip of Africa.