A framework for the measurement and prediction of an individual scientist's performance

TL;DR

This paper introduces a new framework for measuring and predicting individual scientists' performance by analyzing publication and citation processes, exemplified through Estonian researchers.

Contribution

It proposes a novel indicator, the personal impact rate, that incorporates process regularities and practical measurement goals, advancing bibliometric evaluation methods.

Findings

The personal impact rate effectively captures individual scientific impact.

Application to Estonian researchers demonstrates the indicator's practical utility.

The framework aligns bibliometric measures with real-world evaluation needs.

Abstract

Quantitative bibliometric indicators are widely used to evaluate the performance of scientists. However, traditional indicators do not much rely on the analysis of the processes intended to measure and the practical goals of the measurement. In this study, I propose a simple framework to measure and predict an individual researcher's scientific performance that takes into account the main regularities of publication and citation processes and the requirements of practical tasks. Statistical properties of the new indicator - a scientist's personal impact rate - are illustrated by its application to a sample of Estonian researchers.