Offshore wind energy climate projection using UPSCALE climate data under the RCP8.5 emission scenario

TL;DR

This study uses UPSCALE climate data under RCP8.5 to project future offshore wind energy potential, validating methodology reliability across multiple ensemble members and providing crucial insights for policy and development.

Contribution

It extends previous work by testing climate data reliability with multiple ensemble members and offers the first projection of future offshore wind resources under RCP8.5.

Findings

Validated climate data reliability with four ensemble members

Provided first projection of offshore wind resources under RCP8.5

Guidance for policymakers and developers on future wind energy potential

Abstract

Recently it was demonstrated how climate data can be utilized to estimate regional wind power densities. In particular it was shown that the quality of the global scale estimate compared well with regional high resolution studies and a link between surface temperature and moist density in the estimate was presented. In the present paper the methodology is tested further, to ensure that the results using one climate data set are reliable. This is achieved by extending the study to include four ensemble members. With the confidence that one instantiation is sufficient a climate change data set, which was also a result of the UPSCALE experiment, is analyzed. This, for the first time, provides a projection of future changes in wind power resources using this data set. This climate change data set is based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 climate change scenario. This provides guidance for developers and policy makers to mitigate and adapt.