Hyperbolic Growth of the World Population in the Past 12,000 Years

TL;DR

The paper analyzes 12,000 years of population data, revealing that human population growth has been hyperbolic rather than exponential, with three major growth episodes and transitions, challenging the idea of a stagnation-to-growth 'takeoff'.

Contribution

It provides a detailed historical analysis showing hyperbolic growth patterns and transitions, disputing the notion of a stagnation phase before growth.

Findings

Population growth was hyperbolic, not exponential.

Identified three main growth episodes and demographic transitions.

Refutes the idea of a stagnation-to-growth transition.

Abstract

Data describing the growth of the world population in the past 12,000 years are analysed. It is shown that, if unchecked, population does not increase exponentially but hyperbolically. This analysis reveals three approximately-determined episodes of hyperbolic growth: 10,000-500 BC, AD 500-1200 and AD 1400-1950, representing a total of about 89% of the past 12,000 years. It also reveals three demographic transitions: 500 BC-AD 500, AD 1200-1400 and AD 1950-present, representing the remaining 11% of the past 12,000 years. The first two transitions were between sustained hyperbolic trajectories. The current transition is to an unknown trajectory. There was never any form of dramatic transition from stagnation to growth, described often as a takeoff, because there was no stagnation in the growth of the world population. Correct understanding of the historical growth of human population is essential in the correct interpretation of the historical growth of income per capita.