Home-run probability as a function of the coefficient of restitution of baseballs

TL;DR

This paper investigates how the coefficient of restitution of baseballs influences home-run probability, analyzing Japanese game data and developing a simulator to predict outcomes based on ball properties.

Contribution

It introduces a baseball-batting simulator that models home-run probability as a function of the coefficient of restitution, supported by statistical analysis and theoretical explanation.

Findings

Coefficient of restitution significantly impacts home-run probability

The simulator accurately predicts home-run likelihood based on ball properties

Theoretical model explains the simulation results

Abstract

In baseball games, the coefficient of restitution of baseballs strongly affects the flying distance of batted balls, which determines the home-run probability. In Japan, the range of the coefficient of restitution of official baseballs has changed frequently over the past five years, causing the the number of home runs to vary drastically. We analyzed data from Japanese baseball games played in 2014 to investigate the statistical properties of pitched balls. In addition, we used the analysis results to develop a baseball-batting simulator for determining the home-run probability as a function of the coefficient of restitution. Our simulation results are explained by a simple theoretical argument.