Les indicateus avanc\'es de l'inflation en RDCongo

TL;DR

This paper analyzes inflation indicators in DRC, highlighting monetary origin indicators like exchange rate, money supply, and public consumption, and discusses policy strategies for price stability amid high dollarization.

Contribution

It identifies the most relevant inflation indicators in DRC and evaluates the effectiveness of monetary policy strategies considering dollarization and exchange rate dynamics.

Findings

Exchange rate, money supply, and public consumption are key inflation indicators.

Monetary policy based on controlling money supply is less relevant in DRC.

Adopting exchange rate anchoring or inflation targeting could improve policy credibility.

Abstract

This study aims to identify the leading of inflation indicators of monetary policy in DRC. The results reveal that the most relevant inflation indicators usually come from the monetary origin than the real sector. Variance decomposition analyzes place in the foreground the rate of exchange, the money supply and the public consumption like the most relevant indicators. In order to achieve its goal of price stability and to support a strong economic growth, the intermediate objective of the Central Bank baseded on the controle of the money supply seems to be less relevant. Relates to a high level of the dollarization, the central bank will be able to adopt either the strategy of nominal anchoring of the rate of exchange, this calls the return of the fixed exchange regime or to adopt a strategy of inflation targeting is to restore the credibility of the monetary policy