Cash-Flow Based Dynamic Inventory Management

TL;DR

This paper develops a dynamic inventory management model for SMEs that incorporates cash flow, loans, and interest rates, providing optimal policies and bounds to maximize end-of-horizon working capital.

Contribution

It introduces a novel threshold-based policy framework for cash-flow driven inventory management with computational bounds and extensions for various financial constraints.

Findings

Optimal policies are characterized by threshold variables.

Bounds for thresholds are derived for efficient computation.

Numerical studies demonstrate managerial insights.

Abstract

Small-to-medium size enterprises (SMEs), including many startup firms, need to manage interrelated flows of cash and inventories of goods. In this paper, we model a firm that can finance its inventory (ordered or manufactured) with loans in order to meet random demand which in general may not be time stationary. The firm earns interest on its cash on hand and pays interest on its debt. The objective is to maximize the expected value of the firm's %working capital at the end of a finite planning horizon. Our study shows that the optimal ordering policy is characterized by a pair of threshold variables for each period as function of the initial state of the period. Further, upper and lower bounds for the threshold values are developed using two simple-to-compute ordering policies. Based on these bounds, we provide an efficient algorithm to compute the two threshold values. Since the underlying state space is two-dimensional which leads to high computational complexity of the optimization algorithm, we also derive upper bounds for the optimal value function by reducing the optimization problem to one dimension. Subsequently, it is shown that policies of similar structure are optimal when the loan and deposit interest rates are piecewise linear functions, when there is a maximal loan limit and when unsatisfied demand is backordered. Finally, further managerial insights are provided with numerical studies.