Estimating the relevance of predictions from nuclear mean-field models

TL;DR

This paper reviews the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock approach for nuclear physics, focusing on its calibration, prediction reliability, and error analysis, especially in extrapolation regimes, using statistical and systematic methods.

Contribution

It provides a comprehensive analysis of the current status, calibration strategies, and error estimation techniques for the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock nuclear model.

Findings

Assessment of prediction reliability in extrapolation regimes

Methods for statistical and systematic error analysis

Correlation analysis between observables

Abstract

This contribution reviews the present status of the Skyrme-Hartree-Fock (SHF) approach as one of the leading self-consistent mean-field models in the physics of atomic nuclei. It starts with a brief summary of the formalism and strategy for proper calibration of the SHF functional. The main emphasis lies on an exploration of the reliability of predictions, particularly in the regime of extrapolations. Various strategies are discussed to explore the statistical and systematic errors of SHF. The strategies are illustrated on examples from actual applications. Variations of model and fit data are used to get an idea about systematic errors. The statistical error is evaluated in straightforward manner by statistical analysis based on $\chi^2$ fits. This also allows also to evaluate the correlations (covariances) between observables which provides useful insights into the structure of the model and of the fitting strategy.