The Impending Demise of Comet C/2013 US10
Ignacio Ferrin
TL;DR
This paper introduces a three-step criterion to predict comet disintegration, applies it to C/2013 US10, and finds a high probability of disintegration, highlighting gaps in current cometary science understanding.
Contribution
The paper presents a novel three-step criterion for predicting comet disintegration and demonstrates its application to a specific comet, revealing a high disintegration probability.
Findings
92% probability of disintegration for C/2013 US10
Complexity in the Secular Light Curve indicates incomplete scientific understanding
New criterion improves prediction accuracy for comet disintegration
Abstract
We have developed a 3-step criterion to decide if a comet coming from the Oort Cloud will disintegrate. If we apply this criterion to comet C/2013 US10 we find that the probability of disintegration is 92%. The Secular Light Curve of this comet exhibits complexity beyond current scientific understanding, suggesting that our knowledge of cometary science is incomplete.
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Taxonomy
TopicsAstro and Planetary Science · Stellar, planetary, and galactic studies · Planetary Science and Exploration