On the use of Standardized Precipitation Index(SPI) for drought intensity assessment

TL;DR

This study evaluates the effectiveness of the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) in assessing drought intensity, revealing its limitations in extreme dryness/wetness conditions and suggesting cautious interpretation and further research on distribution assumptions.

Contribution

It provides an empirical assessment of SPI's performance in drought evaluation across different rainfall districts and explores the distributional assumptions affecting its accuracy.

Findings

SPI underestimates drought severity in extreme years

Longer SPI time scales show extended but not more sensitive drought detection

SPI distribution deviates from normal in extreme rainfall ranges

Abstract

Monthly rainfall data from June to October for 39 years was used to generate Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) values based on Gamma distribution for a low rainfall and a high rainfall district of Andhra Pradesh state, India. Comparison of SPI, with actual rainfall and rainfall deviation from the mean indicated that SPI values under-estimate the intensity of dryness/wetness when the rainfall is very low/very high respectively. As a result, the SPI in the worst drought years of 2002 and 2006 in the low rainfall district has indicated only moderate dryness instead of extreme dryness. The range of SPI values of the high rainfall district indicated better stretching, compared to that of the low rainfall district. Further, the SPI values of longer time scale (2-, 3- and 4- months) showed an extended range compared to 1-month, but the sensitivity in drought years has not improved significantly. To ascertain whether non normality of SPI is a possible reason, normality tests were conducted. The Shapiro-Wilk statistic, p-values and absolute value of the median confirmed normal distribution of SPI in both the districts whereas cumulative probability distribution of SPI indicated deviation from normal probability in the lower and upper ranges. Therefore, it is suggested that SPI as a stand alone indicator needs to be interpreted with caution to assess the intensity of drought. Further investigations should include; sensitivity of SPI to the estimated shape and scale at lower and upper bounds of gamma and impact of other distributions such as Pearson III on SPI computation, to complement the above results.