Fast and accurate predictions of covalent bonds in chemical space
K. Y. Samuel Chang, Stijn Fias, Raghunathan Ramakrishnan, O., Anatole von Lilienfeld

TL;DR
This paper evaluates the accuracy of perturbation theory-based estimates for predicting covalent bond changes in molecules during alchemical interpolations, finding high accuracy under specific conditions, especially with vertical interpolations and optimized reference geometries.
Contribution
It demonstrates that first order perturbation estimates can achieve chemical accuracy for covalent bonds in molecules with certain conditions, highlighting the importance of geometry optimization and the limitations of second order corrections.
Findings
First order estimates achieve ~1 kcal/mol accuracy with vertical interpolations.
Second order estimates are less accurate than first order when geometries differ.
Independent particle approximation performs poorly compared to coupled approaches.
Abstract
We assess the predictive accuracy of perturbation theory based estimates of changes in covalent bonding due to linear alchemical interpolations among molecules. We have investigated bonding to hydrogen, as well as and bonding between main-group elements, occurring in small sets of iso-valence-electronic molecular species with elements drawn from second to fourth rows in the -block of the periodic table. Numerical evidence suggests that first order estimates of covalent bonding potentials can achieve chemical accuracy if (i) the alchemical interpolation is vertical (fixed geometry), (ii) involves molecules containing elements in the third and fourth row of the periodic table, and (iii) a reference geometry is optimized. In this case, changes in the bonding potential become near-linear in coupling parameter, resulting in analytical predictions with very high…
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