The Modelling of Random Phenomena

TL;DR

This survey introduces fundamental probability concepts and models random phenomena across various fields, emphasizing their practical applications and societal impact, especially in the context of recent natural disasters.

Contribution

It provides an accessible overview of probability theory and modeling techniques applied to real-world phenomena, based on a graduate course and real-life examples.

Findings

Basic probability concepts explained clearly

Examples from daily life, industry, biology, and economy included

Highlights societal importance of understanding randomness

Abstract

This survey is based on a graduate short course given by the author at the Universit\`a degli Studi dell'Aquila, as a part of the Intensive Programme of the European Union "Mathematical Models in Life and Social Sciences", in July 2008. It covers the basics of probability and some examples of modelling of random phenomena in daily life, industry, biology and economy. The year after the course, on April 6th 2009, the building where the programme took place was destroyed by a strong earthquake that caused more than 300 deaths in the region. This work is dedicated to the people that died, lost a beloved one, or lost their homes that day.