Modeling Radicalization Phenomena in Heterogeneous Populations

TL;DR

This paper models how radicalization spreads in mixed populations with core and sensitive groups, showing how core agents can influence and potentially curb radicalization through their involvement.

Contribution

It introduces a dynamic model using differential equations to analyze the impact of core agents on radicalization in heterogeneous populations.

Findings

Core involvement can significantly reduce radicalization.

The influence of core agents depends on the sensitive group's size and activeness.

A minimum level of core engagement is needed to prevent radicalization.

Abstract

The phenomenon of radicalization is investigated within a mixed population composed of core and sensitive subpopulations. The latest includes first to third generation immigrants. Respective ways of life may be partially incompatible. In case of a conflict core agents behave as inflexible about the issue. In contrast, sensitive agents can decide either to live peacefully adjusting their way of life to the core one, or to oppose it with eventually joining violent activities. The interplay dynamics between peaceful and opponent sensitive agents is driven by pairwise interactions. These interactions occur both within the sensitive population and by mixing with core agents. The update process is monitored using a Lotka-Volterra-like Ordinary Differential Equation. Given an initial tiny minority of opponents that coexist with both inflexible and peaceful agents, we investigate implications on the emergence of radicalization. Opponents try to turn peaceful agents to opponents driving radicalization. However, inflexible core agents may step in to bring back opponents to a peaceful choice thus weakening the phenomenon. The required minimum individual core involvement to actually curb radicalization is calculated.It is found to be a function of both the majority or minority status of the sensitive subpopulation with respect to the core subpopulation and the degree of activeness of opponents. The results highlight the instrumental role core agents can have to hinder radicalization within the sensitive subpopulation. Some hints are outlined to favor novel public policies towards social integration.