Effect of marital status on death rates. Part 2: Transient mortality spikes

TL;DR

This paper investigates how abrupt changes in living conditions, like marriage, cause temporary spikes in mortality rates, following a common pattern of rapid increase and slow decay, supporting the Transient Shock conjecture.

Contribution

It introduces the Transient Shock conjecture, proposing that abrupt environmental changes universally induce mortality spikes with a predictable pattern.

Findings

Mortality spikes occur after abrupt transitions in living conditions.

The death rate decreases as a power law with an exponent close to 0.7.

Empirical evidence supports mortality spikes after marriage.

Abstract

We examine what happens in a population when it experiences an abrupt change in surrounding conditions. Several cases of such "abrupt transitions" for both physical and living social systems are analyzed from which it can be seen that all share a common pattern. First, a steep rising death rate followed by a much slower relaxation process during which the death rate decreases as a power law (with an exponent close to 0.7). This leads us to propose a general principle which can be summarized as follows: "ANY abrupt change in living conditions generates a mortality spike which acts as a kind of selection process." This we term the Transient Shock conjecture. It provides a qualitative model which leads to testable predictions. For example, marriage certainly brings about a major change in environmental and social conditions and according to our conjecture one would expect a mortality spike in the months following marriage. At first sight this may seem an unlikely proposition but we demonstrate (by three different methods) that even here the existence of mortality spikes is supported by solid empirical evidence.