Comparison of Uncertainty of Two Precipitation Prediction Models

TL;DR

This paper compares the uncertainty and performance of two weather generating models used for meteorological data in subsurface flow and transport studies at a radioactive waste site, highlighting their impact on modeling accuracy.

Contribution

It provides a comparative analysis of two precipitation prediction models specifically applied to a complex subsurface environment, which is novel in this context.

Findings

Differences in model uncertainty affect subsurface flow predictions.

Performance varies based on local site conditions.

Implications for selecting weather models in environmental studies.

Abstract

Meteorological inputs are an important part of subsurface flow and transport modeling. The choice of source for meteorological data used as inputs has significant impacts on the results of subsurface flow and transport studies. One method to obtain the meteorological data required for flow and transport studies is the use of weather generating models. This paper compares the difference in performance of two weather generating models at Technical Area 54 of Los Alamos National Lab. Technical Area 54 is contains several waste pits for low-level radioactive waste and is the site for subsurface flow and transport studies. This makes the comparison of the performance of the two weather generators at this site particularly valuable.