The Bayesian Second Law of Thermodynamics
Anthony Bartolotta, Sean M. Carroll, Stefan Leichenauer, and Jason, Pollack

TL;DR
This paper introduces a Bayesian formulation of the Second Law of Thermodynamics that incorporates measurement updates, resolving apparent entropy fluctuations and linking information theory with thermodynamic principles.
Contribution
It presents a novel Bayesian generalization of the Second Law, including refined bounds and Bayesian Jarzynski equalities, with analytical and numerical demonstrations.
Findings
Bayesian Second Law accounts for measurement updates in entropy change.
Refined bounds on entropy increase are derived.
Bayesian Jarzynski equality is established.
Abstract
We derive a generalization of the Second Law of Thermodynamics that uses Bayesian updates to explicitly incorporate the effects of a measurement of a system at some point in its evolution. By allowing an experimenter's knowledge to be updated by the measurement process, this formulation resolves a tension between the fact that the entropy of a statistical system can sometimes fluctuate downward and the information-theoretic idea that knowledge of a stochastically-evolving system degrades over time. The Bayesian Second Law can be written as , where is the change in the cross entropy between the original phase-space probability distribution and the measurement-updated distribution , and is the expectation value of a generalized heat flow out of the…
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