Semi-quantitative predictions for the Polish parliamentary elections (October 25, 2015) based on the Emotion/Information/Opinion mode

TL;DR

This paper uses an agent-based opinion model to predict the Polish parliamentary election outcomes three months in advance, achieving semi-quantitative accuracy and analyzing campaign variations.

Contribution

It introduces a semi-quantitative prediction method based on an agent-based model for election results, extending previous work with electoral campaign analysis.

Findings

Model reproduces poll results for major parties

Predicts election outcome range three months ahead

Estimates impact of campaign variations

Abstract

Based on an agent based model of opinion changes, described in detail in a recent paper (\arXiv:1507.00126), we attempt to predict, three months in advance, the range of possible results of the Polish parliamentary elections, scheduled for October 25, 2015. The model reproduces semi-quantitatively the poll results for the three parties which dominated the recent presidential elections and allows estimation of some variations of the electoral propaganda campaigns by the parties.