Visualizing Probabilistic Proof

TL;DR

This paper revisits the Blue Bus Problem, providing Bayesian solutions and visual representations to clarify probabilistic reasoning in legal contexts involving uncertain evidence.

Contribution

It introduces Bayesian methods and visual formats for analyzing the Blue Bus Problem, enhancing understanding of probabilistic proof in legal scenarios.

Findings

Bayesian solutions effectively model the Blue Bus Problem.

Visual representations improve comprehension of probabilistic reasoning.

The approach clarifies how evidence impacts probability assessments.

Abstract

The author revisits the Blue Bus Problem, a famous thought-experiment in law involving probabilistic proof, and presents simple Bayesian solutions to different versions of the blue bus hypothetical. In addition, the author expresses his solutions in standard and visual formats, i.e. in terms of probabilities and natural frequencies.