Coexistence of two dengue virus serotypes and forecasting for Madeira island

TL;DR

This paper uses mathematical modeling and simulations to forecast the potential coexistence of two dengue virus serotypes on Madeira Island, highlighting the risk of future outbreaks if multiple serotypes circulate simultaneously.

Contribution

It introduces a novel mathematical modeling approach to predict dengue serotype coexistence and outbreak risks on Madeira Island.

Findings

Coexistence of two dengue serotypes is possible on Madeira.

Mathematical models can forecast outbreak scenarios.

Risk assessment for future dengue outbreaks on the island.

Abstract

The first outbreak of dengue occurred in Madeira Island on 2012, featuring one virus serotype. Aedes aegypti was the vector of the disease and it is unlikely that it will be eliminated from the island. Therefore, a new outbreak of dengue fever can occur and, if it happens, risk to the population increases if two serotypes coexist. In this paper, mathematical modeling and numerical simulations are carried out to forecast what may happen in Madeira Island in such scenario.