A non-parametric Bayesian approach to decompounding from high frequency data

TL;DR

This paper develops a Bayesian non-parametric method for estimating the jump size density and intensity of a compound Poisson process from high-frequency data, achieving near-optimal convergence rates.

Contribution

It introduces a Dirichlet mixture prior for the jump density and proves posterior contraction rates, along with a practical MCMC algorithm for implementation.

Findings

Posterior contracts at nearly the $rac{1}{ oot{n riangle}}$ rate.

Method is effective for high-frequency data ($ riangle o 0$).

Numerical examples demonstrate practical feasibility.

Abstract

Given a sample from a discretely observed compound Poisson process, we consider non-parametric estimation of the density $f_0$ of its jump sizes, as well as of its intensity $\lambda_0.$ We take a Bayesian approach to the problem and specify the prior on $f_0$ as the Dirichlet location mixture of normal densities. An independent prior for $\lambda_0$ is assumed to be compactly supported and to possess a positive density with respect to the Lebesgue measure. We show that under suitable assumptions the posterior contracts around the pair $(\lambda_0,f_0)$ at essentially (up to a logarithmic factor) the $\sqrt{n\Delta}$-rate, where $n$ is the number of observations and $\Delta$ is the mesh size at which the process is sampled. The emphasis is on high frequency data, $\Delta\to 0$, but the obtained results are also valid for fixed $\Delta$. In either case we assume that $n\Delta\rightarrow\infty$. Our main result implies existence of Bayesian point estimates converging (in the frequentist sense, in probability) to $(\lambda_0,f_0)$ at the same rate. We also discuss a practical implementation of our approach. The computational problem is dealt with by inclusion of auxiliary variables and we develop a Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm that samples from the joint distribution of the unknown parameters in the mixture density and the introduced auxiliary variables. Numerical examples illustrate the feasibility of this approach.