Competitive balance measures and the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis in European football

TL;DR

This paper evaluates various measures of competitive balance in European football, identifying the most effective index for a comprehensive assessment and supporting the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis with empirical data from eight leagues over 60 years.

Contribution

It introduces a holistic index for measuring competitive balance in European football and validates the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis using long-term data.

Findings

The best index captures multiple competition levels effectively.

Empirical support for the Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis.

Different aspects of competitive balance vary in importance depending on the index used.

Abstract

Competitive balance is an important concept for professional sports and one of the key issues that European football has to address in order to ensure its long-term prosperity. However, the quantification of competitive balance is not an easy task. The difficulties are mainly associated with its multi-dimensionality character as well as the structure of each particular sport. This article uses data from eight domestic leagues over 60 years to identify the best index for a holistic view of competitive balance in European football. The findings support the longstanding Uncertainty of Outcome Hypothesis using indices designed for the important three identified levels of competition and offering a weighting pattern for ranking places. Important conclusions may be derived concerning the relative importance of different aspects of competitive balance depending on the specific features of the best index.