Discrete Stochastic Models in Continuous Time for Ecology

TL;DR

This paper introduces a flexible discrete-time stochastic continuous model for ecological systems, incorporating individual traits and environmental resources, and utilizing survival analysis for accurate simulation matching observed data.

Contribution

It presents a novel modeling framework that extends chemical kinetics models to ecology, integrating time-dependent hazard rates and detailed system states.

Findings

Model accurately reproduces observed survival data

Incorporates individual traits and resource use

Simplifies ecological modeling with hazard rates

Abstract

This article shows how to specify and construct a discrete, stochastic, continuous-time model specifically for ecological systems. The model is more broad than typical chemical kinetics models in two ways. First, using time-dependent hazard rates simplifies the process of making models more faithful. Second, the state of the system includes individual traits and use of environmental resources. The models defined here focus on taking survival analysis of observations in the field and using the measured hazard rates to generate simulations which match exactly what was measured.