A Global Map of Suitability for Coastal Vibrio cholerae Under Current and Future Climate Conditions

TL;DR

This study uses ecological niche modeling to map current and future global suitability for Vibrio cholerae in marine environments, identifying key environmental factors and predicting increased risk areas under climate change.

Contribution

It provides the first comprehensive global map of V. cholerae suitability incorporating current and future climate scenarios using remote sensing data.

Findings

Chlorophyll-a, pH, and SST are key environmental factors for V. cholerae presence.

Coastal Bangladesh and Latin America share similar environmental conditions for V. cholerae.

Climate change may expand areas suitable for V. cholerae, increasing cholera risk.

Abstract

Vibrio cholerae is a globally distributed water-borne pathogen that causes severe diarrheal disease and mortality, with current outbreaks as part of the seventh pandemic. Further understanding of the role of environmental factors in potential pathogen distribution and corresponding V. cholerae disease transmission over time and space is urgently needed to target surveillance of cholera and other climate and water-sensitive diseases. We used an ecological niche model (ENM) to identify environmental variables associated with V. cholerae presence in marine environments, to project a global model of V. cholerae distribution in ocean waters under current and future climate scenarios. We generated an ENM using published reports of V. cholerae in seawater and freely available remotely sensed imagery. Models indicated that factors associated with V. cholerae presence included chlorophyll-a, pH, and sea surface temperature (SST), with chlorophyll-a demonstrating the greatest explanatory power from variables selected for model calibration. We identified specific geographic areas for potential V. cholerae distribution. Coastal Bangladesh, where cholera is endemic, was found to be environmentally similar to coastal areas in Latin America. In a conservative climate change scenario, we observed a predicted increase in areas with environmental conditions suitable for V. cholerae. Findings highlight the potential for vulnerability maps to inform cholera surveillance, early warning systems, and disease prevention and control.