The equal load-sharing model of cascade failures in power grids

TL;DR

This paper models cascade failures in power grids using an equal load-sharing approach, revealing that larger systems are more prone to abrupt, first-order transitions under stress, which has implications for grid integration.

Contribution

It introduces a statistical physics model for cascade failures in power grids, highlighting the impact of system size on failure abruptness and systemic risk.

Findings

Failure transitions become more abrupt with larger system size

Systemic risk increases as power grids grow larger

First-order transition behavior observed in large-scale models

Abstract

Electric power-systems are one of the most important critical infrastructures. In recent years, they have been exposed to extreme stress due to the increasing demand, the introduction of distributed renewable energy sources, and the development of extensive interconnections. We investigate the phenomenon of abrupt breakdown of an electric power-system under two scenarios: load growth (mimicking the ever-increasing customer demand) and power fluctuations (mimicking the effects of renewable sources). Our results indicate that increasing the system size causes breakdowns to become more abrupt; in fact, mapping the system to a solvable statistical-physics model indicates the occurrence of a first order transition in the large size limit. Such an enhancement for the systemic risk failures (black-outs) with increasing network size is an effect that should be considered in the current projects aiming to integrate national power-grids into "super-grids".