Time to Quantify Falsifiability

TL;DR

This paper proposes quantifying falsifiability of scientific theories using Bayesian Model Selection, linking philosophical concepts to mathematical tools for evaluating scientific validity.

Contribution

It introduces a method to quantify falsifiability through Bayesian statistics, bridging philosophy and empirical assessment.

Findings

Falsifiability can be expressed as a Bayesian model comparison.

Transforming philosophical debates into quantitative calculations.

Provides a new framework for evaluating scientific theories.

Abstract

Here we argue that the notion of falsifiability, a key concept in defining a valid scientific theory, can be quantified using Bayesian Model Selection, which is a standard tool in modern statistics. This relates falsifiability to the quantitative version of the Occam's razor, and allows transforming some long-running arguments about validity of certain scientific theories from philosophical discussions to mathematical calculations. This is a Letter to the editor.