The Theory of a Heliospheric Economy

TL;DR

This paper develops a quantitative economic framework for understanding human expansion into the heliosphere, using network models and game theory to identify phases and drivers of space economy growth.

Contribution

It introduces a novel economic model based on evolutionary game theory and network analysis to describe and predict the phases of heliospheric expansion.

Findings

Identification of four major phases of heliospheric expansion

Development of a network-based model for space economic behavior

Insights into how economic dynamics drive space exploration

Abstract

Despite more than 50 years of human space exploration, no paper in the field of economics has been published regarding the theory of a space-based economy. The aim of this paper is to develop quantitative techniques to estimate conditions of the human heliospheric expansion. An empirical analysis of current space commercialization and reasoning from first economic principles yields an evolutionary prisoner's dilemma game on a dynamically scaled heterogeneous Newman-Watts Small World Network to generate a new space. The analysis allows for scalar measurements of behavior, market structures, wealth, and technological prowess, with time measured relative to the system. Four major phases of heliospheric expansion become evident, in which the dynamic of the economic environment drives further exploration. Further research could combine empirical estimations of parameters with computer simulations to prove results to inform long-term business plans or public policy to further incentivize human heliospheric domination.