The Direct Detectability of Giant Exoplanets in the Optical

TL;DR

This paper assesses the potential for directly detecting giant exoplanets in the optical using future space telescopes like WFIRST/AFTA, analyzing how various factors influence observability and detection probabilities.

Contribution

It introduces a Monte Carlo framework to evaluate exoplanet detectability considering instrument capabilities, planetary properties, and orbital distributions, providing practical guidance for future observations.

Findings

Detectability fractions depend strongly on instrument contrast and inner working angle.

Jupiter-like planets within 10 parsecs have a 12% observability with baseline WFIRST capabilities.

Detection probability in blind searches is generally low (<5%), but improved with orbital constraints.

Abstract

Motivated by the possibility that a coronagraph will be put on WFIRST/AFTA, we explore the direct detectability of extrasolar giant planets (EGPs) in the optical. We quantify a planet's detectability by the fraction of its orbit for which it is in an observable configuration ($f_\mathrm{obs}$). Using a suite of Monte Carlo experiments, we study the dependence of $f_\mathrm{obs}$ upon the inner working angle (IWA) and minimum achievable contrast ($C_\mathrm{min}$) of the direct-imaging observatory; the planet's phase function, geometric albedo, single-scattering albedo, radius, and distance from Earth; and the semi-major axis distribution of EGPs. We calculate phase functions for a given geometric or single-scattering albedo, assuming various scattering mechanisms. We find that the Lambertian phase function can predict significantly larger $f_\mathrm{obs}$'s with respect to the more realistic Rayleigh phase function. For observations made with WFIRST/AFTA's baseline capabilities ($C_\mathrm{min}\sim10^{-9}$, $\mathrm{IWA}\sim0.2''$), Jupiter-like planets orbiting stars within 10, 30, and 50 parsecs of Earth have volume-averaged observability fractions of ${\sim}$12%, 3%, and 0.5%, respectively. At 10 parsecs, such observations yield $f_\mathrm{obs}>1\%$ for low- to modest-eccentricity planets with semi-major axes in the range ${\sim}2 - 10$ AU. If $C_\mathrm{min}=10^{-10}$, this range extends to ${\sim}35$ AU. We find that, in all but the most optimistic configurations, the probability for detection in a blind search is low (${<}\,5\%$). However, with orbital parameter constraints from long-term radial-velocity campaigns and Gaia astrometry, the tools we develop in this work can be used to determine both the most promising systems to target and when to observe them.