Solar Influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation - Initial Results

TL;DR

This paper explores the potential influence of solar activity on the North Atlantic Oscillation and related atmospheric phenomena, suggesting links between solar cycles and weather patterns, with initial findings indicating possible correlations especially after 1950.

Contribution

It presents initial investigations into how solar activity may affect the NAO, coupling mechanisms in the atmosphere, and hurricane energy, highlighting areas for further research.

Findings

Negative NAO indices are less common during high solar activity periods.

Potential coupling between solar cycles and atmospheric phenomena like the Polar-night jet oscillation.

Solar influence on NAO appears more evident after 1950, possibly due to larger solar cycle amplitudes.

Abstract

Some initial investigations into various atmospheric phenomena and the influence of the solar cycle on weather have been made. Strongly negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) indices, which cause cold and dry winter weather in North West Europe, rarely occur during periods of high solar activity. Coupling between the troposphere and stratosphere is discussed, particularly in the context of Polar-night jet oscillation events (defined by Hitchcock et al., 2013) and the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation. The energy of North Atlantic hurricanes (as indicated by the Accumulated Cyclone Energy Index, ACE) is also linked to solar activity, via UV heating at the tropopause (Elsner et al., 2010), and is suggested as a possible mechanism through which solar activity could influence the NAO. Finally the lack of solar influence on the NAO before $\sim$ 1950 is addressed, with a possible cause being the smaller solar cycle amplitudes. This short report contains several ideas, which may be worth pursuing further.