Branching within branching I: The extinction problem

TL;DR

This paper introduces a complex host-parasite branching model where cell and parasite reproduction are interdependent, and analyzes conditions under which parasites go extinct, linking this to branching processes in random environments.

Contribution

It formalizes a new branching-within-branching model with dependence structures and characterizes parasite extinction conditions.

Findings

Equivalent conditions for parasite extinction established

Extinction linked to parasite behavior along random cell line

Model provides a framework for complex biological population dynamics

Abstract

We consider a discrete-time host-parasite model for a population of cells which are colonized by proliferating parasites. The cell population grows like an ordinary Galton-Watson process, but in reflection of real biological settings the multiplication mechanisms of cells and parasites are allowed to obey some dependence structure. More precisely, the number of offspring produced by a mother cell determines the reproduction law of a parasite living in this cell and also the way the parasite offspring is shared into the daughter cells. In this article, we provide a formal introduction of this branching-within-branching model and then focus on the property of parasite extinction. We establish equivalent conditions for almost sure extinction of parasites, and find a strong relation of this event to the behavior of parasite multiplication along a randomly chosen cell line through the cell tree, which forms a branching process in random environment. In a second paper, the case when parasites survive is studied by proving limit results.