Predicting and controlling the dynamics of infectious diseases

TL;DR

This paper presents a novel optimal control model for infectious disease dynamics focusing on reducing isolation time to control spread, offering a new approach to epidemic management.

Contribution

It introduces a new model emphasizing isolation time as the key control parameter, advancing disease control strategies.

Findings

Model effectively predicts disease spread based on isolation time

Optimal control strategies reduce infection rates

Provides a framework for policy implementation

Abstract

This paper introduces a new optimal control model to describe and control the dynamics of infectious diseases. In the present model, the average time of isolation (i.e. hospitalization) of infectious population is the main time-dependent parameter that defines the spread of infection. All the preventive measures aim to decrease the average time of isolation under given constraints.