Relax, Tensors Are Here: Dependencies in International Processes

TL;DR

This paper introduces a dynamic, network-based model for analyzing international conflicts that accounts for interdependence among countries and captures changes over time, improving upon previous static and independent assumptions.

Contribution

It proposes a novel dynamic tensor-based approach to model dependencies in international processes, addressing limitations of static and independent country assumptions in prior models.

Findings

Demonstrates the effectiveness of the tensor-based model on a new international events database

Shows improved understanding of interdependence in international interactions

Provides an open database for further research

Abstract

Previous models of international conflict have suffered two shortfalls. They tended not to embody dynamic changes, focusing rather on static slices of behavior over time. These models have also been empirically evaluated in ways that assumed the independence of each country, when in reality they are searching for the interdependence among all countries. We illustrate a solution to these two hurdles and evaluate this new, dynamic, network based approach to the dependencies among the ebb and flow of daily international interactions using a newly developed, and openly available, database of events among nations.