Unveiling the population of orphan Gamma Ray Bursts

TL;DR

This paper models the expected population and detection rates of orphan gamma-ray burst afterglows across multiple wavelengths, highlighting their potential observability with current and upcoming surveys.

Contribution

It introduces a population synthesis model to estimate the flux and detection rates of orphan afterglows in mm, optical, and X-ray bands, providing new predictions for observational campaigns.

Findings

Approximately 2 orphan afterglows per year could be detected by Gaia.

Up to 20 orphan afterglows per year could be observed by ZTF.

LSST could detect around 50 orphan afterglows annually.

Abstract

Gamma Ray Bursts are detectable in the gamma-ray band if their jets are oriented towards the observer. However, for each GRB with a typical theta_jet, there should be ~2/theta_jet^2 bursts whose emission cone is oriented elsewhere in space. These off-axis bursts can be eventually detected when, due to the deceleration of their relativistic jets, the beaming angle becomes comparable to the viewing angle. Orphan Afterglows (OA) should outnumber the current population of bursts detected in the gamma-ray band even if they have not been conclusively observed so far at any frequency. We compute the expected flux of the population of orphan afterglows in the mm, optical and X-ray bands through a population synthesis code of GRBs and the standard afterglow emission model. We estimate the detection rate of OA by on-going and forthcoming surveys. The average duration of OA as transients above a given limiting flux is derived and described with analytical expressions: in general OA should appear as daily transients in optical surveys and as monthly/yearly transients in the mm/radio band. We find that ~ 2 OA yr^-1 could already be detected by Gaia and up to 20 OA yr^-1 could be observed by the ZTF survey. A larger number of 50 OA yr^-1 should be detected by LSST in the optical band. For the X-ray band, ~ 26 OA yr^-1 could be detected by the eROSITA. For the large population of OA detectable by LSST, the X-ray and optical follow up of the light curve (for the brightest cases) and/or the extensive follow up of their emission in the mm and radio band could be the key to disentangle their GRB nature from other extragalactic transients of comparable flux density.