The Need for Speed in Near-Earth Asteroid Characterization

TL;DR

The paper highlights the rapid increase in near-Earth asteroid discoveries, the lag in their characterization, and emphasizes the urgent need for swift follow-up observations using larger telescopes to keep pace with discovery rates.

Contribution

It provides a detailed analysis of current NEA discovery and characterization challenges, proposing specific observational strategies for rapid follow-up to improve data collection.

Findings

Discovery rate has increased to ~1,000/year, but characterization lags behind.

Less than 10% of NEAs are well characterized in size, rotation, and spectra.

Over 60% of NEAs have high orbital uncertainty, complicating reacquisition.

Abstract

We have used Minor Planet Center data and tools to explore the discovery circumstances and properties of the currently known population of over 10,000 NEAs, and to quantify the challenges for follow-up from ground-based telescopes. The increasing rate of discovery has grown to ~1,000/year as surveys have become more sensitive, by 1mag every ~7.5 years. However, discoveries of large (H =< 22) NEAs have remained stable at ~365/year over the past decade, at which rate the 2005 Congressional mandate to find 90% of 140m NEAs will not be met before 2030. Meanwhile, characterization is falling farther behind: Fewer than 10% of NEAs are well characterized in terms of size, rotation periods, and spectra, and at current rates of follow-up it will take about a century to determine them even for the known population. Over 60% of NEAs have an orbital uncertainty parameter, U >= 4, making reacquisition more than a year following discovery difficult; for H > 22 this fraction is over 90%. We argue that rapid follow-up will be essential to characterize newly-discovered NEAs. Most new NEAs are found within 0.5mag of peak brightness and fade quickly, typically by 0.5/3.5/5mag after 1/4/6 weeks. About 80% have synodic periods of <3 years that bring them close to Earth several times a decade. However, follow-up observations on subsequent apparitions will be near impossible for the bulk of new discoveries, as these will be H > 22 NEAs that tend to return 100 times fainter. We show that for characterization to keep pace with discovery would require: Visible spectroscopy within days with a dedicated >2m telescope; long-arc astrometry, used also for phase curves, with a >4m telescope; and fast-cadence (<min) lightcurves obtained within days with a >= 4m telescope. For the already-known large (H =< 22) NEAs, subsequent-apparition spectroscopy, astrometry, and photometry could be done with 1-2m telescopes.