East africa in the Malthusian trap? A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators

TL;DR

This paper analyzes East African countries' financial, economic, and demographic data, concluding they remain in the Malthusian trap and must adopt significant fertility and educational reforms to escape it.

Contribution

It provides a statistical assessment showing East Africa's failure to escape the Malthusian trap and identifies necessary policy measures for future progress.

Findings

East African countries have not escaped the Malthusian trap.

They are unlikely to follow the North African path without fertility declines.

Substantial fertility reduction and educational reforms are needed for escape.

Abstract

A statistical analysis of financial, economic, and demographic indicators performed by the authors demonstrates (1) that the main countries of East Africa (Uganda, Kenya, and Tanzania) have not escaped the Malthusian Trap yet; (2) that this countries are not likely to follow the "North African path" and to achieve this escape before they achieve serious successes in their fertility transition; (3) that East Africa is unlikely to achieve this escape if it does not follow the "Bangladeshi path" and does not achieve really substantial fertility declines in the foreseeable future, which would imply the introduction of compulsory universal secondary education, serious family planning programs of the Rwandan type, and the rise of legal age of marriage with parental consent. Such measures should of course be accompanied by the substantial increases in the agricultural labor productivity and the decline of the percentage of population employed in agriculture.