Precipitation extremes under climate change

TL;DR

This paper reviews how precipitation extremes respond to climate change, highlighting the roles of physical factors, current understanding, uncertainties, and future research challenges across different regions and types of extremes.

Contribution

It synthesizes theory, observations, and models to clarify the physical controls and uncertainties in how precipitation extremes will evolve with climate warming.

Findings

Precipitation extremes tend to intensify with warming.

Sensitivity is uncertain when convection is dominant, especially in the tropics.

Orographic and snowfall extremes respond differently and need special attention.

Abstract

The response of precipitation extremes to climate change is considered using results from theory, modeling, and observations, with a focus on the physical factors that control the response. Observations and simulations with climate models show that precipitation extremes intensify in response to a warming climate. However, the sensitivity of precipitation extremes to warming remains uncertain when convection is important, and it may be higher in the tropics than the extratropics. Several physical contributions govern the response of precipitation extremes. The thermodynamic contribution is robust and well understood, but theoretical understanding of the microphysical and dynamical contributions is still being developed. Orographic precipitation extremes and snowfall extremes respond differently from other precipitation extremes and require particular attention. Outstanding research challenges include the influence of mesoscale convective organization, the dependence on the duration considered, and the need to better constrain the sensitivity of tropical precipitation extremes to warming.