Understanding space weather to shield society: A global road map for 2015-2025 commissioned by COSPAR and ILWS

TL;DR

This paper presents a global roadmap from 2015 to 2025 to improve understanding, forecasting, and infrastructure resilience against space weather impacts on society through coordinated international efforts and advanced observation systems.

Contribution

It provides a prioritized, action-oriented strategy for enhancing space weather research, observation, and modeling to better protect technological infrastructure worldwide.

Findings

Prioritized focus on observation-based modeling of the Sun-Earth system

Development of forecasts for magnetic structures of coronal mass ejections over 12 hours ahead

Identification of key instrumentation needs to fill observational gaps

Abstract

There is a growing appreciation that the environmental conditions that we call space weather impact the technological infrastructure that powers the coupled economies around the world. With that comes the need to better shield society against space weather by improving forecasts, environmental specifications, and infrastructure design. [...] advanced understanding of space weather requires a coordinated international approach to effectively provide awareness of the processes within the Sun-Earth system through observation-driven models. This roadmap prioritizes the scientific focus areas and research infrastructure that are needed to significantly advance our understanding of space weather of all intensities and of its implications for society. Advancement of the existing system observatory through the addition of small to moderate state-of-the-art capabilities designed to fill observational gaps will enable significant advances. Such a strategy requires urgent action: key instrumentation needs to be sustained, and action needs to be taken before core capabilities are lost in the aging ensemble. We recommend advances through priority focus (1) on observation-based modeling throughout the Sun-Earth system, (2) on forecasts more than 12 hrs ahead of the magnetic structure of incoming coronal mass ejections, (3) on understanding the geospace response to variable solar-wind stresses that lead to intense geomagnetically-induced currents and ionospheric and radiation storms, and (4) on developing a comprehensive specification of space climate, including the characterization of extreme space storms to guide resilient and robust engineering of technological infrastructures. The roadmap clusters its implementation recommendations by formulating three action pathways, and outlines needed instrumentation and research programs and infrastructure for each of these. [...]