Forecasting the Israeli 2015 elections using a smartphone application

TL;DR

This paper presents a smartphone app called Ha'Midgam used to poll and forecast the 2015 Israeli elections, demonstrating a novel approach to election prediction via mobile technology with bias control methods.

Contribution

The paper introduces a new mobile application for election polling and forecasting, including bias control techniques and analysis of its effectiveness.

Findings

Over 7,500 downloads of the app.

The forecasting method showed potential accuracy.

Discussion of bias limitations and solutions.

Abstract

We developed a smartphone application, Ha'Midgam, to poll and forecast the results of the 2015 Israeli elections. The application was downloaded by over 7,500 people. We present the method used to control bias in our sample and our forecasts. We discuss limitations of our approach and suggest possible solutions to control bias in similar applications.