An optimal control model of mosquito reduction management in a dengue endemic region

TL;DR

This paper develops an optimal control model for mosquito population management in dengue-endemic regions, comparing chemical and fumigation strategies, and finds combined control methods most effective.

Contribution

It introduces a novel indoor-outdoor mosquito population model with optimal control schemes and analyzes the effectiveness of chemical versus fumigation interventions.

Findings

Fumigation is more effective than temephos alone.

Combined control schemes yield the greatest mosquito reduction.

Optimal control methods guide effective intervention strategies.

Abstract

Aedes aegypti is known as the responsible vector transmitting dengue flavivirus. Unavailability of medication to cure the transmission of the virus in the human blood becomes a global health issue in recent decades. World epidemiologists are encouraged to focus on the investigation over the effective and inexpensive way to prevent dengue transmission, i.e. mosquito control. In this paper, we present a model depicting the dynamics of mosquito population based on indoor-outdoor life cycle classification. The basic mosquito offspring number was obtained and analysis of equilibria was shown. We brought along a discussion on the application of optimal control to the model in which two simultaneous schemes were introduced. The first scheme is done by disseminating chemical like temephos in spots where eggs and larvae develop, meanwhile the second scheme is done by deploying fumigation through areas where adult mosquitoes prevalently nest, indoor as well as outdoor. A version of the gradient-based method was presented to set up a workflow in minimizing the objective functional with respect to some control variables. Numerical results from the analysis of the basic mosquito offspring number with constant control and from that with optimal control suggested that the application of fumigation is preferable over that of temephos. It was also suggested that applying both control schemes simultaneously gives the most significant reduction in the population.