Decoding the International System

TL;DR

This paper analyzes the development of the International System, highlighting how systemic wars lead to organizational innovations, social expansion, and a finite-time singularity characterized by accelerating cycles from 1495 to 1945.

Contribution

It introduces a model of the International System's evolution using log-periodic cycles and identifies a finite-time singularity in its development.

Findings

Identification of a finite-time singularity in 1495-1945

Four accelerating log-periodic cycles observed

Systemic wars drive organizational innovations

Abstract

The International System develops according to a clear logic: By means of systemic wars organisational innovations are periodically introduced, contributing to a process of social expansion and integration, and to wealth creation. A finite-time singularity accompanied by four accelerating log-periodic cycles can be identified during the time frame 1495-1945.