Super compact pairwise model for SIS epidemic on heterogeneous networks

TL;DR

This paper introduces a highly simplified pairwise model with only four equations for SIS epidemic dynamics on heterogeneous networks, using a novel closure relation involving degree distribution moments.

Contribution

It presents a super compact pairwise model derived with a new closure that accurately captures heterogeneity with minimal equations.

Findings

Model shows excellent agreement with complex heterogeneous models.

Uses degree distribution moments for improved accuracy.

Reduces computational complexity in epidemic modeling.

Abstract

In this paper we provide the derivation of a super compact pairwise model with only 4 equations in the context of describing susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) epidemic dynamics on heterogenous networks. The super compact model is based on a new closure relation that involves not only the average degree but also the second and third moments of the degree distribution. Its derivation uses an a priori approximation of the degree distribution of susceptible nodes in terms of the degree distribution of the network. The new closure gives excellent agreement with heterogeneous pairwise models that contain significantly more differential equations.