On the predictability of rogue events

TL;DR

This study evaluates the predictability of rogue waves across three systems using nonlinear time series analysis, revealing varying degrees of determinism and potential warning signs before events.

Contribution

It introduces a comparative analysis of rogue wave dynamics in different physical systems, highlighting the role of turbulence and quantum noise in their predictability.

Findings

Optical fiber rogue waves driven by quantum noise show low determinism.

Turbulence-driven rogue waves exhibit some precursors, indicating partial predictability.

Multiple rogue events often have a short warning phase before occurrence.

Abstract

Using experimental data from three different rogue wave supporting systems, determinism and predictability of the underlying dynamics are evaluated with methods of nonlinear time series analysis. We included original records from the Draupner platform in the North Sea as well as time series from two optical systems in our analysis. One of the latter was measured in the infrared tail of optical fiber supercontinua, the other in the fluence profiles of multifilaments. All three data sets exhibit extreme-value statistics and exceed the significant wave height in the respective system by a factor larger than two. Nonlinear time series analysis indicates a different degree of determinism in the systems. The optical fiber scenario is found to be driven by quantum noise whereas rogue waves emerge as a consequence of turbulence in the others. With the large number of rogue events observed in the multifilament system, we can systematically explore the predictability of such events in a turbulent system. We observe that rogue events do not necessarily appear without a warning, but are often preceded by a short phase of relative order. This surprising finding sheds some new light on the fascinating phenomenon of rogue waves.